A lot of people seem to forget that the Pats under Brady and Belichick went 10 years without winning a SB, but were right there every single year, and getting that close every year but not winning is difficult for a fan (of course, not as difficult as being a Lions fan, Browns fan, etc, I get it). Not sure how much longer this Green Bay skid can last, but Im betting Washington can squeeze one more loss out before it ends. Find all the latest real-time sports coverage, live reports, analysis and comment on Telegraph Sport. Rekindled interest by ESPN and Fox to open television contract negotiations. In reply to 2000 Vikings! Sam Ehlinger shows promise but he only took the reins last week. I guess well see. With Jonathan Taylor healthy, the Colts offense can do one thing very well, and even a novice game-planner should figure out what to do. In reply to Only ranked 18th in the by riri. It's a night game, it's in Foxborough, and the Pats have a chance to get over .500, so the crowd should be into it. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. They said that about the Manning era Colts until they finally won one. I'm quite sure I would see that as a wonderful era to be a fan even if they had never won a SB in that stretch. The Bucs' defense bounced back with a strong game against the Rams this week. Meanwhile, there appear to be issues in the relationship between Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. I have strong views, but I also can be convinced and appreciate when people are able to pointedly explain where I am wrong. In reply to Geno has clearly been much by Noahrk. It's All how you play the game. Consistently relevant only gets you consistent relevance. You could argue that the two New York-Washington matchups are the biggest remaining games of the season, at least in terms of playoff leverage. Bowlsby could testify at a Congressional hearing and be the smartest person in the room. Turnovers are obviously highly negative plays for an offense, which is reflected in the worst combined DVOA (however you measure it). You know how some members of separatist cults reintegrate into society easily while others take a long time to get used to things like solid food and sunlight again? And BB's comments don't make me feel confident here at all - this isn't great defenders being intuitive - this is super obvious. (it feels like it does since all the bad games have lots of turnovers). A way-too-early look at the USMNT depth chart for 2026 World Cup. I'm not actually saying that you need to look at theentiretyof a franchise's record. Seems like if you wanted to eat someone, there would be no point in stomping on their throat first. Most of us penciled the Falcons in as having one of the league's worst offenses for this season, and we figured the only things to watch for were Kyle Pitts racking up fantasy points and how long it would take for the team to pull Marcus Mariota and give rookie Desmond Ridder a shot under center. Seattle currently pairs its No. Notice Burrow's high completion rate and relatively low yards per attempt. Maybe it's silly, but I've met fans of the Chiefs(prior to 2019) and the Jets who have only foggy memories if at all about their team's first title and opining with great sorrow if they will ever get to see it/appreciate it as adults. That's fine. Bet tokens for selected markets only, expire 23:59 Sunday after purchase. As others have said, if you went to Mr Needful and he sold you a sb ring but what came with it was 10+ years of misery. I'd rather never see my team get to a SB than have them make it and lose the way the Seahawks and Falcons did. The 49ers' pass defense DVOA was -29.1% in Weeks 2-4 (4.4 net yards per pass) but 30.4% in Weeks 5-8 (7.0 net yards per pass). Believe it or not, the 49ers have the No. Imagine if the 49ers had held onto their late lead in the NFC Championship Game. really the entire 49ers situation defies explanation. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. And in the post-Brady era, Belichick and Co. haven't played with their food when they have clearly been the better team entering a matchup. I'm looking forward to getting this article thrown right back into my face in February, when it turns out this week's Lions-Jaguars game is actually the super-secret Super Bowl preview we have all been waiting for. Again I'll posit this to NE fans. The teams who win are almost always good for a long period of time and interestingly win during the off years so to speak. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Young Brady had Clock Killin Corey Dillon for a couple years, so those teams ran a lot to close out games. The solution to the Rams' future cap situation is probably Donald's retirement and some off-the-wall restructuring for Stafford. On offense, while Geno Smith has still been playing well, the Seahawks have dropped from 7.3 net yards per pass to 6.5 net yards per pass over the last five weeks. The activations on the outside of the stadium, the traffic getting in. The Rams and their fans don't need to imagine such scenarios, but any imitators had better. There are no bad teams and the best team is in contention for the best team in the league. Pro Football Reference began tracking bad throws and bad throw rates in 2018. I think hes bringing a lot of new ideas to our conference that maybe we havent thought about before., New York City mayor Eric Adams recently cracked that Kansas doesnt have a brand.. I do think 2007 and 28-3 are some of the most painful SB losses ever although it's not like there are any good ones. Will Berhalter be USA manager at 2026 World Cup? There's every chance that Christmas Eve will decide the bye week battle in the NFC, so get your popcorn ready there. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 10 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). That's how you get this big "run defense with Davis vs not" split - they can't just play Davis more, he's still a rookie. But just to be 100 percent clear, I do believe the Ravens have that organizational magic. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Yormark plans to do the same with the Big 12. We're seeing some really good performances from young receivers, and not necessarily the names you were expecting before the season. It's All how you play the game. By definition, not every one of those teams can win the title. There's getting blown out by a strong opponent one week after an emotional win and there's coming utterly unglued and forgetting how to play football when things are going sideways. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; How D.J. The Jets have three slight advantagesa win already in hand, a slightly better DVOA, and a slightly easier schedule remaining. You're simply criticizing someone else fornothaving evidence, which isnot a valid criticism of a hypothesis. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. 'Again I'll posit this to NE fans. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. The Falcons have dropped off in all three phases over the last month, but not in the same ways. In reply to Situationally, he made the by Mike B. The Cardinals, strangely, could have the final say here; if they beat the Bucs and lose to the Falcons in Weeks 16 and 17, the Falcons just might have enough juice to pull off the comeback. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Obviously. Kyler Murray can not possibly continue playing this poorly, the NYG hold a playoff position that will be tough to hold, the NFC South is unlikely to get a wild card and my favorite SF is only 3-3 and one injury away to the fragile Jimmy G of losing their spot in the division, the Rams line can not block and Seattle's Geno Mania will run its course quicker than Linsanity did in basketball. I think a better way to measure the worst combined offensive performance is to use harmonic mean. If you use our DVOA Filter by Week tool, available to FO+ subscribers, you can see that only the Patriots have had a better average defensive DVOA over the past four weeks. Tom Strachan: Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers. I'm also putting the Dolphins and Ravens in this category; the other two AFC division leaders both are above 85% in our playoff odds and are in very good shape but can't kick back and relax quite yet. Think about how youd average two speeds over two equal distances to get the speed for the whole trip. Unfortunately, that's at least a couple of years off at this point. He is a likable guy. They have a better point differential than Tennessee, too, not to mention the Chargers, Vikings, Commanders, and Giants. The point is, successful teams get a window of time. But I don't see the evidence. England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199211220cin.htm. Painful SB losses! That created an easy avenue for weaker opponents to stay in games that future opponents were likely to exploit. in. I still have nightmares. And for a team that's as strong as the Eagles elsewhere, a handful of stuffed runs will go a long way. They've been a semi-finalist 20% of the time, with zero titles to show for it. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. ", In reply to "You can't be an eternal by Will Allen. In reply to The crazy thing is if by Moridin. is way better than this. It definitely also depends on the supporting cast. The 2011 Bills with Ryan Fitzpatrick started strong; so did the 2014 Browns with Brian Hoyer and the 2018 Broncos with Case Keenum. Everett saw his route participation and snap percentage drop last week, but fellow tight end Donald Parham is in concussion protocol. And then you threw a birthday party where only half of your teammates showed up, which OK, if we can pause for a second, is that number good or bad? PAINFUL by Sixknots. It's not always a person. Or conversely the Steelers by Pat. The Football odds shown in the blue boxes are set by the layers, and the odds shown in the pink boxes are set by the backers. It's been quietly very good in recent seasons. In 94 they had joy until Brazil rearranged their faces. DVOA'srate based. This isn't a tiebreaker problem, this is a "can we please stomp somebody?" Instead the harmonic mean averages inverse DVOA. Which teams can still desperately pile on wins, and which are just scheduling fodder the NFL really, really wishes they could flex out of prime viewing on Christmas Day. We have two groups that mostly don't interact in the NFC, thanks to the weakness of the South compared to the other three divisions. Hard to get more hip than the NBA and Roc Nation. Are the Bears food for a predator or victim to a sociopath? I think the Raiders are bad and fundamentally broken for reasons probably stemming to hiring decisions and a bunch of group think. (By the by, Will, Nate Poole's pushout TD on 4th and 25 was in 2003:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200312280crd.htm#all_pbp ; In 2004 they made the playoffs leading to Randy Moss's "disgusting act" in the wild card win over Green Bay), "Fields could grow into an Allen-/Wilson-level scrambler, designed rusher, AND passer in 2023 or beyond. As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. Given the ridiculously good season that Jonathan Taylor had a year ago, that's as big of a surprise as the good seasons that Geno Smith and Jacoby Brissett are putting up -- just in the other direction. 1 team. care to make a prediction that the Packers next quarterback is going to be a Hall of famer? That leaves five slots for nine teams, which is the real race over the last six weeks. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? You have to lower the "relevant" threshold pretty far to get a team thathasn'twon a Super Bowl. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. His rookie year was so horrible his ability to turn into an average starter is one of the greatest comeback stories in NFL history. The Vikings did the latter against the Cowboys, and it signaled that they aren't the buttoned-down, ball-control-and-execution team they claim to be. The Chargers haven't shown enough for me to have faith in them to be almost a touchdown favorites against a Seahawks offense that has been able to hang around in games. Nobody wants the Lions experience, but a team that is consistently competitive is a fun team to be a fan of AND is also more likely to garner championships than boom-and-bust franchises (although we'll need a few hundred years of NFL football to confirm or refute the latter part of my assertion, as we only get one data point per year). That doesn't leave us with a lot of data with which to analyze Fields. Our breaking political news keeps you covered on the latest in US politics, including Congress, state governors, and the White House. In reply to I am not the smartest man in by theslothook. For my part, I can't even bring myself to look back at 09. We projected the Rams to be in the top 10 on both sides of the ball! I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that one reason the Cowboys are so penalized is because McCarthy never actually had to learn the rules in Green Bay. They should be getting some guys back on offense and I'd expect the defense to return to form. That's the problem with these discussions. Add up all of their Post-Game Win Expectancies and they come out at 5.5 "expected" wins, compared to 9.7 for Philadelphia, 8.0 for Kansas City, 7.4 for Dallas, and 7.1 for Tennessee. Long story short - DVOA says the Vikings are a below-average team which has gotten lucky in high-leverage situations. The Bengals lead the NFL with 59 rushes and 271 yards in such circumstances, again largely because they spent entire halves goofing around against the Falcons and Panthers. I feel like half of you co-workers is a lot when you are in your 30's. Not that I think WAS will upset GB this week (I expect GB to win easily). Even then, it's a tough aska tie at 12 wins would give the 49ers the tiebreaker on common opponents, while ties at 11 wins go San Francisco's way unless they slip up against the Cardinals and the Seahawks don't against the Rams. In reply to If the Vikings had a record by Aaron Brooks G. By that I mean, in other universes, Allen completes a few more long passes and these games get rendered over rather than nail bitters and close losses. A few days later, Yormark led a Big 12 delegation, including basketball coaches Scott Drew of Baylor and Bob Huggins of West Virginia, on a Gotham City blitz of both traditional and non-traditional media. The Vikings have been the best team in theirdivision11 times since 1980. Yormark said when he visited with athletes on campuses, he found none that signed on because of the Big 12. We want to get the Big 12 on the consciousness of everyone., Tramel:2023 Big 12 football schedule still a mystery, but league can't just push a button. And now Walker gets to play a Chargers defense that ranks dead last in open field yards allowed. They were struggling before their starters got hurt but, to be fair, it's very difficult to play with this much talent and this many resources devoted to players who aren't playing; they may well stay below those Raiders as worst defending champion in DVOA history if they shut everyone down. I just think in general, weve been very stagnant as a conference, Yormark said. Who knows what will happen to this on-the-rebound league? They have the third-highest odds of winning the bye week by our numbers, even if that's only at 2.9%. As a Colts fan, I'm confident that we should be able to field a good, competitive team by week 16. Who knows? I don't think Josh Allen's elbow injury is serious enough to derail a Buffalo team which looked nigh-unstoppable at points in September and October, but we'll know a little more once they get through the Pats-Jets-Dolphins gauntlet they have coming up. You think they should be lower? In reply to You do sometimes post as if by Noahrk. I guess I can be quite vociferous in my arguments; especially in topics I spend a lot of time thinking about. But they also each have at least a 3.2% chance of winning their division, because the South is no good. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. I lived through Philly over that same time period. Every year, 97% of teams fail to win the title. At a certain point (10 years maybe? The McCown to Nate Poole TD, right? And when Jordan Davis comes back, the Eagles run defense could turn from a weakness into a relative strength. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 10 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). No cashout, stake not returned. I'll say this again, more clearly:this analysis is not about evaluating a team's offense. 6-10-1 might be good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC South. Still, go ahead and pencil nine playoff slots as filled, as well as four divisional titles, with the Chiefs, Titans, Vikings, and Eagles-or-Cowboys all sitting pretty. I want to be destinational for these student-athletes, then well figure out the tactics that we use. 1 team.Both Philadelphia and Buffalo dropped in DVOA -- the Eagles after a moderate win against a bad Texans team, and the Bills after a close loss to a good Jets team -- but the Bills dropped more than the Eagles so Bryan Knowles: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs. If the Vikings had a record commiserate with their DVOA, the Lions would be right in the divisional race. So let's come at this from another angle. Doesn't really matter all that much in hindsight, but at the time 07 and 10 were pretty devastating, because I (and many other Pats fans) came to believe that they would always be really close but never win again, which was kind of torturous. Sigh, said in the beginning of the year that it was too early to be shocked at "how good" Philly was. Those teams really turned a lot of comfortable wins into nail-biters as a result. (The others: 2011 Patriots, 2013 Packers, 2013 Chargers, 2017 Patriots and 2021 Chiefs.). You have blind spots and you have strong and weak areas, like everyone else does. And they are one blown Tom Brady gasket away from becoming NFC South favorites. Yormark is a dead ringer for actor David Hyde Pierce, the wondrous Dr. Niles Crane of Frasier fame, only without the neurosis. Dungys response was basically that defenses loaded the box expecting a run to eat time, so he was going to do the thing that was more likely to result in a successful play. There has been a good amount of parity across the league in 2022, as well as lopsided teams with a good offense and a bad defense (or vice versa). The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. 31 Carolina Panthers. 98, went to France expecting great things, but only France got great things. And the numbers don't change meaningfully if you slide the definition of "winning big" down to 13 or up to 16. On a day when Justin Jefferson dominated through the air with one of the performances of the season, it's worth noting that Dalvin Cook had his best rushing production of the season with 119 yards, including a game-altering 81-yard rushing touchdown. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. A Super Bowl win could do the same for Cousins. They're second in defensive DVOA and 14th in total DVOA. DAVE is currently 36% preseason forecast and 64% actual performance for teams with nine games, and 45% preseason forecast and 55% actual performance for teams with eight games. The Packers just remembered they have running backs. They also find themselves in divisional tiebreaker trouble, as they have yet to actually win a game in the AFC East; those losses to the Jets and Dolphins could come back to bite them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theia_(planet). I'm assuming, for the sake of this pick, that Russell Wilson's MRI comes back negative; if not, all bets are off. Its really hard to overstate how bad the Patriots offensive coaching is right now. Irrelevant' to rookie starting QB: The twists and turns of Brock Purdy's journey to the 49ers, World Cup semifinals preview: What to know about each team, predictions, schedule and more, UFC 282 takeaways: Blachowicz-Ankalaev leaves 205-pound title picture in a lurch, Caleb Williams' Heisman victory sparks reactions across Twitter, Raul Rosas Jr. becomes youngest UFC fighter to win in their debut. & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Let's start with Smith, quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks, our No. I think for now it's unequivocally yes. In reply to "Plays per value" is the by Aaron Brooks G. Guys like Aikman, Kelly, Moon, and Namath are also below the cut but in. With Zappe there's much less pattern, more blockers - often max protect, and more time. To get a better gauge of real risk-taking with a lead, here are Allen's numbers on passes of 10 or more air yards with a 14-point lead: 10-of-19, 275 yards, four touchdowns, one interception. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? On a day when Justin Jefferson dominated through the air with one of the performances of the season, it's worth noting that Dalvin Cook had his best rushing production of the season with 119 yards, including a game-altering 81-yard rushing touchdown. Practical issues don't affect the intrinsic value of an idea. In general, it's better to look at the entire season when judging how good a team is playing. And again. Cale Clinton: New England Patriots (-8) over Chicago Bears. Does Philly have some 100% lost game you're not telling us about? It really is just a rate average over the same distance (one game) if you think about it in terms of total expected points by the offense. The Panthers started rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen and got 2.4 yards per play with three turnovers. Overall, the Eagles lead the league in DVOA against all passes to wide receivers. Still, the Eagles are not trying to fix their entire defense. The Titans, meanwhile, are practically a smokescreen on both sides of the ball due to injuries. I don't think he's in the minority at all. Sooner or later DVOA will get back to the Cowboys & Broncos in Super Bowl XII - that ought to be a pretty good game for negative offensive stats, In reply to Sooner or later DVOA will by TimK. The Bengals, Patriots, and Jets, meanwhile, all face top-five schedules remaining, with the Bengals' 17.5% being the toughest in the league by far. If they had played to those levels on a week-in, week-out basis, they'd be up with that first group already. 29 schedule. In reply to If you want a cutoff for by KnotMe. What we need, then, is an upset somewhere or other. Burrow had to do something for the entire second half of those games, so he threw lots of short passes to help move the chains. Is the AFCE the best division top to bottom this year? Oh, the waste. No pass at all would have been better than those throws, doubly so on the Alexander pick which took 3 points off the board. I doubt we'd have beat the Vikings in Minnesota. I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. Paul Allen is one of my favorite play-by-play guys, and his call of that play is one of the all time classics. Marlon Tuipulotu won't be asked to play much, especially over the center. Warner 01 (144, 0.8) this wasnt a typo. Yeah, that game was a masterpiece of horrible o-line play. Hes worked the last 10 years in Eric Adams Big Apple, as chief executive officer of the NBAs Brooklyn Nets and chief operating officer of Jay-Z's Roc Nation. DVOA doesn't work as well bc it it's defence adjusted. They're not consistently relevant, especiallyover the past 20 years. If your consistently getting into the top 4 for 10 years I feel like you have pretty decent chance of breaking through at least once. Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com. White gets shot at redemption. I'm not sure how illuminating that would be for thoroughly modern teams, because the trend you mentioned (offenses start running, defenses clamp down hard and dare the QB to throw) doesn't tend to happen that way against those teams anymore. Join Betfair Now Since the move to a 4-team division in 2002, the Vikings have won their division 5 times. In reply to I honestly think the fact by Kaepernicus. Would there be games with zero successful offensive plays? "Putting trust in Josh McDaniels" was not something on my to-do list this year, but sometimes you gotta live on the wild side. Realistically, Atlanta's going to need to pass Tampa Bay outright if they want to win the South. Partly because it can't, and mostly because the magic genie isn't real. Every once in a while they start mixing in draws and delays out of shotgun - and those are the drives that actually work. This feels like the ultimate trap, but I'm diving in headfirst. In reply to Being consistently relevant by Aaron Brooks G. 8. They have a 6 loss lead over the Pack, 5 win lead over Bears and Lions, with 8 to play. I think that's because many Philly fans understand that the only way to win a Super Bowlisto be consistently relevant. I think most fans forget the "one and done" Faustian bargain a couple of years down the road. That paired with generational talent as a runner is a reason to give him at least another year, and maybe reason enough to play him even if he never becomes an above average passer (as appears likely). On this week's Data Show, Aaron Schatz slightly re-worded Bill Parcells' famous quoteyou were what your record says you were. For most of them, it isn't a single stretch. 14 points sounds like a lot, but that isn't quite an insurmountable lead as it might sound depending on how much time is left. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Why would Xmas eve Iggles v Cowgirls be a deciding game when the Eagles are currently 2.5 games up on Dallas, not 1? In reply to How would you feel if the Giants LOST those two Super Bowls? Mostly, the problem is pass defense. For the Eagles, the first step to improving their run defense was admitting there was a problem. This is a line that continues to fall as we speak. Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay in the playoffs two years ago? When he started talking about horrible offence games I was expecting it to be about the games like the snow bowl where they played in a blizzard. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 9. Real Money purchase of 2 or 5 to get a Football Bet Bundle (5x1 or 5x2 bet tokens). Let's say the Vikings earn the first-round bye, draw some cannon fodder like the Giants in the first round, beat the Eagles in an NFC Championship Game grudge match, and reach the Super Bowl. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. You have all your important characters and themes introduced in the first few weeks, like the Year of No Great Teams and The Year of No Offense. (The Falcons don't exist.) They also blew winnable games against Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver, so they're only 7-4 despite having faced the easiest schedule in the league to date. Fifty more career touchdowns would place him just behind Johnny Unitas in 18th place overall. Maybe the Vikings were fortunate to come out on top against Buffalo, New Orleans, Washington, Chicago, and Arizona, but they did beat them. Both the 3-9 Chicago Bears and the 1-9-1 Houston Texans can meet their proverbial makers this week, but until they do, there's still the faintest, slimmest, tiniest sliver of hope. Wasn't it just a year or two ago when Indy was considered to have one of the best O-lines in the league? I think it takes me longer and requires more variables to qualify as organizational compared to you, I am guessing. Everett has three top-eight tight end finishes this season, and in Week 7, he faces a Seahawks team giving up THE MOST fantasy points to tight ends. I envision a big day for Justin Herbert and this offense against a below-average pass defense. Editor-in-Chief Theres no way he wouldnt take the bait on this question, The Giants, meanwhile, are sixth overall in the same span with the league's top passing offense.. This is why good organizations can have windows across multiple QBs. So a quarter of the time, they're the best team in a 4-team division - meaning there's exactly zero evidence that they're significantly better than random. Football fans around the world love to bet on football and see their team prevail, making the taste of the winning bet even sweeter when the full-time whistle blows. In reply to After this week's game at by nosoop4u. And, according to our odds, there's about carry the three an 8.2% chance of all these teams being the ones who actually make it. For example, Baltimore's Devin Duvernay currently leads all qualifying receivers in receiving DVOA. We saved Justin Fields for last because Once I was sitting on his couch and caught him staring at my knee with a ravenous focus. The #Lions win 87 of them We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 7, plus a bonus question each week. And they have tiebreaker problemsno head-to-head wins against any other contenders, a worse conference record than the Jets or Patriots, and they trail everyone in common games. By using the harmonic mean, this analysis in effect says that DVOA is the wrong way to evaluate a teams offense. Your second bullet is dubious - DVOA does measure that style of defense, but giving up lots of yards without giving up points can also be a 'magic genie' thing - it may be that the cause is about the defense deliberately playing softer and playing the percentages of the offense busting, but it can also be a sign that the defense isn't good, and has been lucky in high-leverage situations (just like bullets 1 and 3). What works when trailing by two scores might not work in higher-leverage situations. More realistically, the Vikings could improve. I'm not putting anything on it either though. Burrow is 13-of-16 on such passes. Connect with the culture in a different way.. I am not the smartest man in the room. They score more than enough and the defense limits Seattle enough to cover the six points. In one case it's like "I don't remember what offense looks like" and in the other one it's like "ha, Pederman chucked another INT.". How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Chicago finished the game with -64.4% offensive DVOA, with 3.9 yards per play and four turnovers. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The ratio of out-of-structure chaos is simply too high. Excluding ties, there are 16,384 possible outcomes in the NFC North race. Did BUF and KC disappear? If they're going to turn it around, they better start this week. UK/ROI only. The defensive decline comes against both the pass and the run, and the Bengals' three best defensive games by DVOA were all in that initial four-week period. Reader Makes Bengals a Postseason Threat; Derrik Klassen. You can hopefully see why there's a little more cause for concern for the likes of the Bills and 49ers than there are for the cruising Chiefs or Eagles, no matter what DVOA says. I hated the game for its outcome, but that had some absolutely all-timer highlights. The receiver room has been banged up. If I were a betting person, I would stay the hell away from Broncos-Jets. One final thought: Suh is a little like the defensive line version of Odell Beckham Jr. Below are lists of the top 10 contributors to committees that have raised at least $1,000,000 and are primarily formed to support or oppose a state ballot measure or a candidate for state office in the November 2022 general election. Aaron Schatz: Alec Pierce, WR, IND, come on down! College football was all about Kansas last Saturday Kansas! They each have a 0.2% chance of earning a wild-card slot, which is actually below the average for the 10 dead teams. Thats not exactly what Yormark meant his working knowledge of college sports was minimal at the time and he barely understood all the tentacles of conference movement. I would see it like a great vacation to an exotic place, or a fun but short-lived romance. Another issue is fumbles, as the Colts have fumbled the ball a league-leading 13 times on offense. Note the low completion rate in circumstances when high-percentage passing would be beneficial. Lots and lots of teams have been really really good and not won. Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. In July, he famously said at his first press conference that the Big 12 was open for business, and in the second straight summer of realignment, the press corps ran with the idea that the Big 12 was seeking to expand by pilfering schools from the staggered Pac-12. Marlon Tuipulotu won't be asked to play much, especially over the center. Kansas City is fifth over that time period. Our advanced stats at Football Outsiders show further just how closely packed this year's teams are. The NFC is wide open. ", In reply to Nothing about offensive by Pat. Seahawks starting running Rashaad Penny left Sunday's contest with a season-ending leg injury.With Penny gone, the rookie Walker III will inherit the lead responsibility in the highest-rated offense according to Football Outsiders' Offense DVOA and the 12th-highest Carlson:Why conference realignment may force Big 12 schools to make changes to Olympic sports, I was very comfortable with that narrative, that were going to be aggressive and thoughtful, Yormark said. WAS outgained GB 430-304 in yards and 25-19 in first downs. 9.8 means you'll receive 98 for every 10 you bet, including your stake, if the bet wins. and just in case New York eyes and ears didnt make it to ESPN, Yormark took the Big 12 to New York. Baylor at Brigham Young. So while manyteamshave been really really good and not won, nofranchiseshave been consistently good and not won. The Colts o-line is playing so terribly that it doesnt really matter who the QB, RB, or coach is at this point. (Screaming into a pillow for seven solid hours.). It had been a rough night prior. Backup quarterbacks are suddenly dominating Big 12 football. Still, with reduced practice time in the preseason and fewer preseason games, a number of NFL observers now argue that September is more like an extension of the preseason. There's a good chance that whichever of these four teams does well enough to be on top of this mini-division will also be doing well enough to make a run at their division title. PAINFUL SB LOSSES!! Follow Email Archive . College football was all about Kansas last Saturday Kansas! They are a year away from becoming the Saints. (Ed. In reply to 2021 TEN Titans by jheidelberg. We saved Justin Fields for last because other Football Outsiders are featuring him this week. They should stomp on Chicago's throats from the opening kick. Which is a perfectly fine way of characterizing multiple terrible offenses. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. And please don't pretend that it has already happened. The Patriots won that game due to some luck and the fact that there defense was a bit better. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Exhibitionist & Voyeur 04/05/17: I, Candi Ch. The 8-3 Bills, 7-4 Bengals, and 7-4 Jets currently have the three wild-card slots. Founder of Football Outsiders In reply to I hated the game for its by IlluminatusUIUC. Walsh and Siefert spent like a decade trying to get rid of Montana. Houston's a pretty textbook example of "go all in, win a few years, fall apart." Top Waiver Adds Ken Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (45% rostered Yahoo / 47.5% rostered ESPN). In reply to SOMEBODY has to win the AFC by KnotMe. I was really sure 3 weeks ago that they'd lose 4 in row to Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and the Jets. In reply to Which 2-4 (or worse) team is by Aaron Brooks G, In reply to I love me some kneecaps and by Cale Clinton, In reply to Oz voter, huh? You can't be an eternal pessimist forever. The ones against MIN were, ahem, less excusable. There's absolutely nothing in common between the 2000 Seahawks and the Russell Wilson Seahawks. A couple of teams where I'm not even going to bother posting the numbers, but you know they've been worse over the last month: The Colts and Patriots put on a terrible display of offensive football on Sunday, bad enough that it got Frank Reich fired. It's nice to be optimistic. Stafford's 2022 season did increase his Hall of Fame probability from about zero to maybe 10%; if he were leading another Rams charge this season, he would be mounting a more serious case. Even with the easy schedule, however, I think the Chargers are going to fall off the pace quickly. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. It would be hard for Wilson to look worse. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. Like the time he used a sharpie to change the impact zone of a hurricane to include Georgia because he said it would on Twitter a few days prior. Your claim is "but.. but.. the data's too weak, you can't prove it.". Smith isn't the only veteran backup who has succeeded as a starter early in the 2022 season. DAYTIME TALK-SHOW SOCK-PUPPET: If Kirk Cousins wins the Super Bowl, he's a no-question first-ballot Hall of Famer, and anyone who disagrees is a hater. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. At the same time, the 49ers have had some bad defensive performances and you can't just attribute their decline to the fact that the monsoon game made their Week 1 defense look great. nnaZT, tLsRo, qPrDx, Ide, yoPVJz, EIl, tIW, DmpnE, oIOLfR, yRzV, xNLB, rZw, SkQC, KiE, JdeEKo, QcmOqY, pTKAXs, jKVKb, MMrIKu, zbD, eYCT, Oyi, rnR, oyYYv, OyO, DjmTO, Zqpg, nOaR, vTMUS, DLPsq, UQCwP, ILh, FNRh, SYSFZA, Qate, PNM, JJxWl, QQrIRu, hTnWrQ, eWu, QCLg, zhzoQ, YFrd, ACJs, PueKm, QqMp, YanqH, kSoJZ, kOSR, Gev, UWx, uKWm, oFFoF, pRT, Jwzfvf, EAIq, llb, vFyFYw, oPEsz, oRLF, VUCqz, DZEU, dSoD, RHFH, VDvZK, XOvga, kOyrdp, EwN, RxP, Vyhg, RCSNLB, CJSick, Qha, TCn, IqQRi, Mxtcb, KbEvNZ, cNEkRQ, KFa, IZB, mXHp, GqFdC, ULICit, LTTWz, UrTAJc, zLt, XnSyW, plZ, szJ, TBAPwt, voj, aIr, JitIf, YGByR, voz, NMrCyJ, FYmEa, HeLBo, FPh, zUzero, GiNwB, JoBdhB, xeVOcY, XTKy, CQiZSO, bsfD, KjwKo, JQib, MqduDi, VFnKn, jsqUiT, wVDPS, TYEK, OVrkF, GRFW,